As an analyst following the day to day happenings in green transportation, I often feel that the industry blindly accepts that the majority of the future economic opportunity for EVs is in China. Many articles often rehash the usual drivers of near double digit GDP growth, powerful government edicts, and poor urban air quality to support their statements. It certainly makes a strong case.
However, whilst the potential market for EVs in China is obviously HUGE, it is important to dig deeper in order to specifically assess the suitability of EVs as a solution to Chinese consumers rather than get overly excited every time the “C-word” is dropped into the equation. What will make Chinese buy electric vehicles over traditional ICE vehicles? Simply saying the economy is growing fast and air quality is poor, in my book, is not enough.
When taken from this standpoint, the opportunity for EVs in China looks less rosy for at least three reasons:
- Price Sensitive Consumers: It is important to recognize that EVs will, at least for a number of years, command a significant ($10-15k) price premium over traditional ICE vehicles. And even though China’s economy is growing fast, the lion’s share of car
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